Oh how amusing our world is at the moment. It never ceases to amaze me just how the so called “experts” pussy foot around the bleeding obvious.
Last night I witnessed another “crisis” debate on the economy, complete with the ideologically minded, inept and stupid discussing whether our mighty economy or indeed the world economy will enter the “double dip” scenario so feared for the past 3 years.
The definition appears to be the pre-occupation of the economists. Will we enter 2 quarters of negative growth? However as ever, the obvious is missed.
It makes absolutely no difference whether our economy enters the technical definition of a recession thus entering our history books as a double dip recession. For most ordinary mortals in our country, Europe and the USA, we ARE in recession and will remain so for many months ahead.
Our economy has been bumping along the bottom for 9 months. The economy has virtually not grown at all for that time and standards of living have decreased.
Consumer confidence is at its lowest, money is not being spent in the shops and unemployment is rising as employers hold off expansion or recruitment.
For ordinary mortals THIS IS A RECESSION.
What makes things worse at the moment is that there were many people in our society which were actually BETTER OFF than they had been for years when the initial recession hit. These are the home owners with a mortgage who stayed in a job. These people saw there outgoings reduce by hundreds of pounds as interest rates tumbled.
Now however, these same people are also feeling the pinch as we have had several years of rising prices and lower wages. Some are now working part time rather than full time and others have lost their jobs or taken pay cuts. The advantages first felt have worn off and further job losses in the economy are inevitable. The feelings of recession are hitting every corner of the middle and lower incomes and women in particular.
The most as an economy we can hope for is stagnation for the the next few years. Some in government will be hoping for a bit of inflation at the same time, to inflate and devalue us out of our predicament.
The UK , though not in the worst position in the world economy, is thoroughly dependent on Europe and the USA. We are so globalised and rely on trade, that the Euro crises and US economic doldrums will affect us badly.
Rather than debating the technicalities that no one really cares about, we should be discussing the systemic problems with our capitalist system so that we c an look long term and put things right. This however is a forlorn hope.